Microsoft-Decision-1 is available in Microsoft Foundry and through OpenRouter at $0.042 per million input tokens, with output tokens free.

● OPEN · settles 2026-10-18

Background

Microsoft is betting that a lot of what businesses ask large models to do is not writing at all, but picking: route this ticket, flag that request, score this answer. Microsoft-Decision-1 does only that. Given a fixed set of options, it returns a calibrated probability for each in a single pass, and it writes no text. Microsoft post-trained it from Alibaba's Qwen3.5-9B and says it took the highest average accuracy in its own 36-benchmark comparison, covering nearly 150,000 questions kept blind from training, at a median latency 35 times faster than GPT-6 Sol. Inside Microsoft, the Xbox research team used it to sort more than 10,000 pieces of player feedback, at what the company says was comparable quality to GPT-6 Sol, 14 times faster and 200 times cheaper. It arrives weeks after OpenAI opened a similar Decisions API, which makes decision scoring a category the big labs are now openly fighting over.

This market exists because launch announcements are easy to make and hard to grade. Press releases describe what a company intends to ship; they rarely come back later to say whether it shipped. AI Rank Bank pulls one checkable sentence out of the coverage — the sentence above — gives it a date, and lets readers price it in public. The launch itself stays with its publisher; what lives here is the claim, the crowd's call, and eventually the receipt.

How this claim is judged

Judging criteria, fixed when the market opened: Delivered if, at the check time, Microsoft-Decision-1 is still listed and callable in the Microsoft Foundry catalog and on OpenRouter at the announced price of $0.042 per million input tokens with output tokens free, as shown on the Foundry catalog or OpenRouter listing linked from the announcement. Removal from either channel, or a price increase, does not count.

The source of record is the publisher's own page linked above. A claim about a company's product is judged against that company's public output — its product pages, documentation, changelogs and official posts — not against rumors or third-party summaries. Only yes-or-no outcomes count: partial credit is not a verdict, and a claim that needs a paragraph of excuses has already answered itself.

How readers called it

1 reader called this claim. 100% said it would deliver.

1 Will deliver · 0 Won't ship

Points reward being right against the crowd. A correct call pays 100 × (1 − the share of readers who agreed with you when you placed it), with a floor of 10: side with a 90% consensus and a win pays 10, stand alone and a win pays up to 100. Wrong calls pay nothing. The price is locked in when the call is placed, so early readers are paid for judging before the crowd forms, not for copying it.

How readers split

The split line starts with this market's first snapshots — a point is recorded whenever a reader calls the claim, and at least once an hour while it stays open. Check back after the crowd has moved and the line will be here.

Verdict

No verdict yet. This claim is checked on 2026-10-18 08:00 Eastern Time (12:00 UTC) against the source of record below. When the check happens, one of three stamps lands on this page permanently: delivered if the claim came true as stated, busted if it did not, or unproven if the date passes without public evidence either way. Unproven claims pay no points and do not count against any reader's hit rate.

About this market

AI Rank Bank is an AI news front page with a memory. Every launch on the homepage carries one claim like this one, with a check date. Readers call claims with points, build a public record, and climb the leaderboard. Companies build a record too: every settled claim lands on the company's bank page, where its delivery rate is simple arithmetic that nobody gets to edit afterwards. There is no money in the market — points buy bragging rights only, which keeps the incentives pointed at being right.