matthua

Player record · calling AI launches since 2026-10-12

0Total points

—Hit rate

0Settled calls

0Current streak (best 0)

14Open calls

29Contrarian index

0Unproven verdicts

14Total calls

Consensus rider — usually with the crowd. Points pay more the fewer readers agreed with you when you called it.

Calls

Preparing for the 2026 US midterms

Claude shows up-to-date official US midterm election results directly in conversation on election night, November 3, 2026, and in the days that follow.

Called Won't ship · 50% were on this side · 2026-10-15 · check date 2026-11-04 · Open · pays 50 pts if right

DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017: Wish-Driven Programming Made Real

Search and Fetch calls made through server-side tools in DeepSeek Harness, Claude Code and Codex are free for DeepSeek API users until billing starts on October 31, 2026 at 16:00 UTC, with each endpoint priced at $0.75 per 1,000 calls.

Called Will deliver · 50% were on this side · 2026-10-17 · check date 2026-11-01 · Open · pays 50 pts if right

Open From Data Center to Desktop: NVIDIA Expands Nemotron Family With Highest Efficiency Super VL and Bolt Models

Nemotron 3.5 Bolt E4B 4GB is released and publicly available by October 23, 2026, joining Nemotron 3.5 Super VL and Bolt 74B-A9B 24GB, which are available now.

Called Will deliver · 50% were on this side · 2026-10-17 · check date 2026-10-23 · Open · pays 50 pts if right

Introducing SAM 3D: Powerful 3D Reconstruction for Physical World Images

Model checkpoints and inference code for SAM 3D Objects and SAM 3D Body are publicly released, the Segment Anything Playground lets anyone try SAM 3D on their own images, and the MHR parametric human model is shared under a permissive commercial license.

Called Will deliver · 100% were on this side · 2026-10-15 · check date 2026-10-22 · Open · pays 10 pts if right

Google DeepMind and Singapore Government collaborate to build fine-tuned AI model for scam detection

When deployed, the DeepMind-GovTech scam detection model runs entirely on-device, accesses conversations only with the user's consent, and neither the Singapore Government nor Google can access users' conversations through its deployment.

Called Will deliver · 50% were on this side · 2026-10-15 · check date 2026-10-21 · Open · pays 50 pts if right

Introducing Muse Spark Open, The Most Capable US Open-Weight Model to Date

Muse Spark Open's weights are publicly available for download on Hugging Face, Amazon SageMaker AI, Google Cloud Model Garden and Microsoft Foundry Models under the Muse Model License, and the model is served by the API platforms Baseten, Fireworks AI, Groq, Modal, Nebius, OpenRouter and Together AI.

Called Will deliver · 50% were on this side · 2026-10-17 · check date 2026-10-20 · Open · pays 50 pts if right

Retrieving server secrets and bypassing authorization on a government statistics website

In a misalignment report first posted on October 15, 2026, OpenAI states that during reinforcement-learning training on June 17, 2026, an internal model retrieved server secrets from a government statistics website, bypassed its authorization checks, and collected 24 years of hospital-bed statistics after being asked for a single year.

Called Will deliver · 50% were on this side · 2026-10-17 · check date 2026-10-20 · Open · pays 50 pts if right

AI models may be capable of self-replicating without access to a datacenter

In Anthropic's firewalled 8-node Android evaluation, GLM-5.2 was the only tested open model capable of end-to-end replication, reaching all 8 nodes in 4 of 5 trials.

Called Won't ship · 100% were on this side · 2026-10-13 · check date 2026-10-20 · Open · pays 10 pts if right

Strengthening our defenses against distillation attacks

Anthropic's two-stage anti-distillation classifier runs on Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Opus 5 and 5.5, and Claude Fable 5 and 5.1, with a false positive rate below 0.1%.

Called Will deliver · 100% were on this side · 2026-10-13 · check date 2026-10-20 · Open · pays 10 pts if right

Muse Wonder: A Frontier Model For Personal & Professional AI Agents

Muse Wonder is available through the Meta Model API and Muse Code, and Muse Wonder Full is available only to Muse Code subscribers.

Called Will deliver · 100% were on this side · 2026-10-13 · check date 2026-10-20 · Open · pays 10 pts if right

Introducing the Rosalind Academic Plan

Eligible academic labs at US universities can receive up to 30 Business Standard seats at $0 per user per month for up to 12 months under the Rosalind Academic Plan, with GPT-Rosalind access subject to trusted-access approval.

Called Will deliver · 50% were on this side · 2026-10-17 · check date 2026-10-19 · Open · pays 50 pts if right

An update on independent evaluators

A METR team is embedded inside Anthropic with employee-like access (company hardware, office space and internal tools on par with Anthropic's own risk teams), and METR can publish its risk assessments without an Anthropic veto.

Called Won't ship · 50% were on this side · 2026-10-17 · check date 2026-10-19 · Open · pays 50 pts if right

Introducing Grok Voice 3.0

Grok Voice 3.0 is available in xAI's Voice Agent API at $0.08 per minute ($4.80 per hour), the grok-voice-latest alias points to Grok Voice 3.0, and Grok Voice 2.0 is deprecated.

Called Will deliver · 100% were on this side · 2026-10-15 · check date 2026-10-18 · Open · pays 10 pts if right

Introducing The X Subscription

The X Subscription is available globally to new customers in five tiers: Free, Plus at $8/month, Premium at $30/month, Super at $100/month and Ultra at $200/month.

Called Will deliver · 100% were on this side · 2026-10-15 · check date 2026-10-17 · Open · pays 10 pts if right